Tesla’s 4680 battery could cut range anxiety but production issues remain
Elon Musk raised hopes and tempered expectations in one cryptic swoop on July 26 in a rare insight into work on his company’s putative game-changing battery:
We have successfully validated performance and lifetime of our 4680 cells produced at our Kato facility in California. We are nearing the end of manufacturing validation at Kato: field quality and yield are at viable levels and our focus is now on improving the 10% of manufacturing processes that currently bottleneck production output. While substantial progress has been made, we still have work ahead of us before we can achieve volume production. Internal crash testing of our structural pack architecture with a single-piece front casting has been successful.
Any mention of production difficulties at Tesla conjures up memories of the Model 3’s rocky launch in 2017 and 2018, during which Musk slept at his office. Despite this, Tesla became the world leader in electric vehicles and one of the world’s most valuable firms as a result of that pivotal car.
The bigger, cylindrical 4680 cell, first revealed at Tesla’s Battery Day last September, comes with its own set of high expectations and challenges: If Tesla can achieve vertically integrated battery manufacturing in-house and the cell works as expected, the 4680 might help Musk realize his vision of mass-producing millions of electric vehicles per year across the world. Tesla’s objectives include increasing driving range by more than 50% — 16 percent thanks to the 4680’s increased power — halving battery prices, and bringing a $25,000 Tesla to showrooms. Tesla continues to be the market leader in electric vehicle sales in the United States, but its seemingly unassailable lead in driving range is being challenged. The Lucid Air sedan, manufactured in Arizona by Musk’s former Model S chief engineer, has proven it can drive up to 517 miles, a world record for any electric vehicle. The Model S Long Range, Tesla’s greatest vehicle, has a range of 405 miles according to the EPA.
“The Lucid Air is the first car to demonstrate range that is not just competitive (with Tesla), but superior, which is an incredible achievement,” said Venkat Viswanathan, a battery researcher and associate professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University. “It demonstrates that it is no longer a one-horse race.”
To go back in front, a 50% range increase for a vehicle like the Model S would allow it to travel 600 miles, a diesel-like range that was unthinkable just a few years ago. So much for “range apprehension.” Sandy Munro, a Detroit-area engineer known for his reverse-engineered EV teardowns and analyses on YouTube, is one of the experts who believes Tesla will succeed.
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