Black Friday & Cyber Week Spending Down 1.4% But It’s Not All Bad News

Consumers are shopping earlier and even holding off for post-holiday sales for major purchases according to data released by Adobe

Consumer awareness of supply chain bottlenecks, as well as even earlier promotions, may have contributed to a modest drop in e-commerce sales in the United States over Cyber Week, which runs from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. Consumers in the United States spent a record $34.4 billion during Cyber Week last year, up 20.7 percent from the year before. However, according to data from Adobe’s Digital Economy Index, internet spending fell by 1.4 percent this year to $33.9 billion.

Adobe’s analysis is based on data from over one trillion visits to U.S. e-commerce websites, which include 100 million unique SKUs across 18 product categories, providing a complete view of Christmas purchasing trends.

Starting on Black Friday this year, the company observed a drop in sales. This year’s Black Friday online sales were $8.9 billion, down 1.3 percent from last year’s record of $9.03 billion — the first-ever year-over-year fall. Cyber Monday 2021 sales were also down 1.4 percent year over year to $10.7 billion, barely $100 million less than the $10.8 billion spent the previous year. Meanwhile, online sales on Thanksgiving Day remained unchanged at $5.1 billion.

These decreases, while minor, signal a reversal of the regular trend of Christmas shopping sales increasing with each passing year. It’s a striking indication of how the pandemic’s long-term effects — which now include supply chain problems — may have played out in consumers’ minds, especially for a sector allegedly accelerated several years by the pandemic, according to reports from last year. Consumers may have shopped earlier this year, fearful of anticipated shortages, according to Adobe.

This appears to be supported by the data. Consumers spent $109.8 billion in November (from November 1 to November 29), up 11.9 percent from the previous year. According to Adobe, this indicates that online spending has exceeded $3 billion for 22 days of the month. This is a new high, as it took only 9 days in 2020 to reach the same milestone. Furthermore, the corporation points out that customers may have shopped in the previous month.

Sales won’t necessarily be lower in 2021, but they won’t be as concentrated as they were previously. In fact, the pandemic may have made online buying such a regular habit that, instead of waiting for a huge Black Friday or Cyber Monday sales extravaganza like in years past, customers are now making their holiday purchases alongside their everyday activities.

Despite the decreases, the peak holiday shopping season appeared to be very similar to what it would have been otherwise. When compared to September 2021 sales, Cyber Monday consumers went for the traditional categories in bigger numbers, such as toys (sales were nearly 11x pre-season levels in September 2021), gift cards (up by 7x), books (up by 7x), video games (up by 6x), and baby and child products (up by 6x). Microwave ovens and small kitchen appliances, for example, were up 9.6x and 7.1x, respectively, resulting in a 5.6x gain in the category.

Sales driven by smartphones were also up this year, with Cyber Monday smartphone sales up 8.4% year over year, for example. However, this is a deviation from the original plan. Smartphone sales were predicted to exceed 50% of online sales prior to the epidemic. However, Adobe notes that consumers who work from home may not need to purchase on their phones as frequently as they did previously.

Despite the differences in shopping trends, Adobe predicts that the overall holiday season will set a new high. From November 1 to December 31, it is expected that consumers will drive a 10% increase in purchases year over year, bringing total sales to $207 billion.